If TSMC provides the logic brain, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) provides the blood flow. This scribble analyzes why memory, historically a cyclical commodity, has entered a “Supercycle” of structural scarcity and high margins.
The Capacity Cannibalization Effect
The J.P. Morgan Private Bank and industry sources identify a looming “multidimensional polarization” in the memory market. While demand for legacy memory (DDR4) is soft, demand for HBM is limitless. The problem is one of physical trade-offs in manufacturing.
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Die Size Penalty: HBM chips are significantly larger than standard DRAM chips. Furthermore, the yield loss from the complex TSV (Through-Silicon Via) stacking process is substantial.
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Wafer Displacement: To produce one wafer of HBM, a manufacturer effectively sacrifices the capacity to produce three wafers of standard DRAM.
This leads to a paradox: as manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix shift wafer starts to HBM to chase high margins, the supply of standard DRAM collapses.
- Price Forecast: Consequently, standard DRAM prices are forecast to rise 62% in 2026, and NAND prices to climb 75%. This is an inflationary shock to the entire electronics supply chain, from PCs to smartphones, driven by the gravitational pull of AI.
The “Sold Out” Phenomenon
Micron Technology has explicitly stated that its entire HBM output for calendar year 2026 is fully allocated under long-term supply agreements. The spot market for HBM has effectively ceased to exist; it is a contract market where access is prioritized over price.
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Market Size: The global memory market is projected to exceed $440 billion in 2026. HBM revenue alone is estimated to reach $54.6 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase.
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Strategic Implication: For the buyers (Nvidia, Google, Microsoft), securing HBM supply is a strategic imperative. They are willing to pay a “scarcity premium,” effectively transferring wealth from their balance sheets to the P&L statements of the memory makers.