Previous scribble established the HBM market’s attractiveness. This scribble examines the gladiatorial combat between the incumbents to capture this value. In 2026, the hierarchy of Korean memory has been upended.
The Valuation Inversion
Historically, Samsung Electronics traded at a premium due to its stability and scale. In 2026, SK Hynix trades at a premium due to its specialization.
-
Operating Profit Forecasts: UBS projects SK Hynix’s 2026 operating profit to exceed 150 trillion KRW. In contrast, consensus estimates for Samsung are closer to 100 trillion KRW.
-
Target Prices: UBS has raised SK Hynix’s target price to 1,000,000 KRW, citing an “unprecedented upcycle”.
The Technology Moat: MR-MUF vs. TC-NCF
The divergence in fortune is rooted in packaging physics. The transition to HBM3E and HBM4 requires stacking up to 16 layers of DRAM.
-
SK Hynix (MR-MUF): SK Hynix utilizes Mass Reflow Molded Underfill. This process connects all chips simultaneously and fills gaps with a liquid epoxy. It has proven superior in thermal management and yield, achieving nearly 80% yield rates for HBM3E.
-
Samsung (TC-NCF): Samsung has relied on Thermal Compression Non-Conductive Film. This process presses layers individually. It has historically suffered from lower throughput and yields estimated in the 60-65% range.
This yield differential translates directly to gross margins. SK Hynix’s lower wastage allows it to command operating margins exceeding 60% in the HBM segment , while Samsung struggles to catch up.
The HBM4 Pivot Point
However, 2026 brings a new battleground: HBM4. This standard moves to a 2048-bit interface (double the 1024-bit of HBM3E) and requires a logic base die.
-
Samsung’s Opportunity: Samsung is aggressively redesigning its 1c DRAM and aiming for a 50% capacity surge in 2026. Its “turnkey” proposition - offering memory, foundry (for the logic base die), and packaging under one roof - is theoretically attractive for HBM4.
-
SK Hynix’s Defense: SK Hynix is partnering with TSMC to produce the logic base die for its HBM4, leveraging the best foundry to complement its best memory. The outcome of this battle - Samsung’s vertical integration vs. SK Hynix/TSMC’s alliance - will determine the leadership of the 2027 cycle.