I checked silver prices on December 31, 2025. Global price was around $64 per ounce. That’s about ₹1,070 per gram if you convert directly.
But in India, silver was trading at ₹208.79 per gram.
That’s more than 2 times the global price. Almost 2.4 times.
Why? I started digging into this because it seemed like free money. Like, couldn’t you just buy silver globally and sell it in India?
The answer is no. There are real reasons for the premium.
First, currency. The Indian rupee has been depreciating against the US dollar. In 2021, it was 75 rupees per dollar. By December 2025, it was 85+ rupees per dollar. That alone explains 35 to 40 percent of the premium.
Second, taxes. India charges 12.5 percent customs duty on imported silver. Plus 5 percent GST. That’s 17.5 percent right there. Shipping costs add another 3 to 4 percent.
Third, local monopoly. There aren’t many silver refineries in India. So supply is constrained. Prices reflect that scarcity.
Fourth, demand surges. October through December, India’s wedding season drives jewelry demand. Silver prices spike during these months. This year, that added another 10 to 15 percent premium.
Fifth, volatility. Silver is 1.7 times more volatile than gold. Retailers hoard silver, charging premiums to cover their risk.
Add all this up, and you get the 2.4 times premium.
But here’s the interesting part. Motilal Oswal, a major Indian investment bank, predicted that silver in India will hit ₹2.4 lakh (₹240,000 per kg) by end of 2026.
I did the math on this. If global silver prices reach $70 per ounce (which several banks are forecasting), and if the rupee trades in the 92 to 95 range (which is the consensus), then the math works out.
$70 per ounce × 32.15 oz per kg = $2,250 per kg $2,250 × 93 rupees per dollar = ₹209,250 per kg Add 17.5 percent for taxes and logistics = ₹245,800 per kg
That’s almost exactly ₹2.4 lakh.
So the forecast isn’t wild speculation. It’s based on currency movements and commodity prices.
What does this mean for you?
If you believe the rupee will weaken further, silver becomes a currency hedge. You’re not just betting on silver prices. You’re betting on rupee depreciation too. That combination could give you returns superior to either bet alone.
If you think the rupee will stabilize around 90 to 95, then silver’s premium might compress from 2.3 times to 1.8 times. Which means less upside from the regional angle.
Either way, the premium isn’t disappearing. It’s structural. As long as rupee weakness continues, Indian silver prices will stay elevated.