I was reading about the transition happening in solar panel technology. PERC cells are being replaced by TOPCon and HJT cells. Seemed like a boring technical update.
But then I realized what this actually means for silver.
PERC cells (the current standard) use about 121 milligrams of silver per cell.
TOPCon cells (the new standard) use 145 to 165 milligrams. That’s 22 percent more.
HJT cells (the cutting edge) use 150 to 180 milligrams. That’s 25 percent more.
And here’s the thing. This transition isn’t optional. It’s locked in by efficiency mandates.
TOPCon cells achieve 22 to 24 percent efficiency. PERC achieves 21 to 22 percent. That extra 1 to 2 percent efficiency translates to real cost savings at utility scale. So manufacturers are switching.
In 2024, PERC had 92 percent market share. By 2030, the forecast is PERC drops to 25 percent. TOPCon rises to 45 percent. HJT rises to 20 percent.
What does that mean mathematically?
In 2024, the blended average was 121 milligrams of silver per cell. In 2030, it’ll be 155 milligrams. That’s a 28 percent increase in silver per cell.
On top of that, global solar installations are growing 15 to 20 percent per year. So demand is growing both because of volume AND because each panel uses more silver.
Combined effect? Solar silver demand could grow 15 to 18 percent annually.
But global silver mine supply grows 0 to 2 percent annually.
That’s not a gap. That’s a chasm.
Here’s what I find interesting. This transition is unstoppable. Manufacturers won’t go back to PERC cells. They’ve already committed to the technology shift. EU and US subsidies favor high-efficiency cells. The efficiency gains are real.
So we can’t solve this by saying “use less silver per cell.” The industry has already optimized that. They reduced silver per cell from 521 milligrams to 111 milligrams over two decades. But then total consumption grew 287 percent because volume exploded.
The same thing is happening now. More efficient cells with slightly more silver. But massive volume growth.
By 2030, solar alone could need 350 to 380 million ounces of silver annually. That’s 40 to 45 percent of total global supply for one industry.
Which means the rest of the world is fighting for scraps.
This is a structural demand increase, not a cyclical one. And it’s baked into the roadmap for the next five years.