The Oracle of Veldhoven
I’ve always said that if you want to know the future of technology, don’t listen to the software CEOs; watch the hardware order books. Today, ASML - the Dutch company that practically owns the monopoly on advanced chip-making machines - gave us a glimpse into 2027 and beyond.
The headline number is staggering: €13.2 billion in net bookings for Q4 2025. To put that in perspective, analysts were expecting roughly half that amount. This isn’t just a “beat”; it’s a signal flare. It tells us that the world’s biggest chipmakers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) are terrified of running out of capacity. They are booking machines they won’t even plug in for another 18 months.
High NA: The New Heavyweight
What’s fascinating is the specific mention of “High NA” systems. These are the new, bus-sized machines that cost upwards of €350 million each. Revenue for two of them was recognized this quarter.
This confirms that we are officially entering the “Angstrom Era” of computing. The fact that customers are paying for these beasts now means the roadmap to 2nm chips (and smaller) is locked in. We aren’t just refining current tech anymore; we are building the infrastructure for a completely new density of intelligence.
The AI Reality Check
For months, skeptics have whispered about an “AI Bubble.” ASML’s report suggests otherwise. You don’t spend €13 billion on equipment for a fad. You spend it because your customers - the Nvidias and Apples of the world - are demanding capacity that doesn’t exist yet.
The backlog now stands at nearly €39 billion. That is a massive safety net, but also a massive responsibility. The bottleneck for the next decade of human progress isn’t code; it’s how fast ASML can ship these crates from Veldhoven. The digital world is expanding, but it’s still constrained by the physical speed of Dutch engineering.