I was looking at enterprise adoption data. And I noticed something odd.
There are three completely different groups of companies.
Group 1: AI Beginners (about 59% of enterprises)
These companies have AI pilots. Maybe they’ve deployed one or two things. But they’re still figuring it out. No measurement. No governance. No strategy. They’re in exploration mode.
Group 2: AI Advanced (about 32% of enterprises)
These companies have implemented AI at scale. Multiple systems. Some governance. They’re starting to measure ROI. They have strategies.
Group 3: AI Leaders (about 9% of enterprises)
These companies have comprehensive AI strategies. Robust measurement. Governance frameworks. Continuous optimization. And they’re reporting 3.2x higher productivity gains than beginners.
Here’s the weird part. These three groups aren’t converging.
You’d think Group 1 would naturally advance to Group 2, which would advance to Group 3.
But it’s not happening. The gap is actually widening.
Because once you’re in Group 3, you have advantages that are hard to catch up on.
You have the data. You have the talent. You have the governance frameworks. You have the integrations. You have the muscle memory.
Group 1 companies are spending money on pilots. Group 3 companies are spending money on scaling and optimization. Both are spending the same amount. But Group 3 is getting 3x better results.
So what’s going to happen to Group 1 companies?
I think some will get stuck. They’ll keep doing pilots forever. Costs will exceed benefits. They’ll reduce investment.
Some will jump to Group 2. They’ll hire consultants. They’ll buy platforms. They’ll commit to real implementation.
But jumping from Group 1 to Group 2 is expensive. It requires organizational change. It requires commitment.
So we’re going to have a bifurcated market. Group 1 and 2 companies will gradually reduce AI spending. Group 3 companies will increase it and pull further ahead.
This creates a winner-take-most dynamic. The companies that figured out AI first will have a structural advantage for the next decade.