The Death of Organic Growth
Everyone is talking about the headline number: $4.9 trillion in deal value, a 40% jump from the previous year. It’s easy to look at that and say, “Animal spirits are back.” But if you dig into what companies are buying, a more concerning truth emerges.
In 2025, 60% of large deals (over $1 billion) were “scope” deals - acquisitions aimed at entering new markets or buying new capabilities. This is the highest rate on record.
The non-obvious insight here? Corporate organic growth engines are broken. Companies are effectively admitting they can no longer innovate fast enough internally to survive. Whether it is a bank buying a payments processor or a retailer buying a logistics network, they aren’t buying competitors to get bigger (Scale); they are buying “outsiders” to get smarter (Scope). M&A has become the new R&D.
The “Tourist” Trap
There is a second, darker signal in the data. You would expect the biggest, most complex deals to be handled by the pros - the serial acquirers who have a dedicated M&A machine.
Instead, the report reveals that 59% of megadeals (>$5 billion) were driven by “infrequent acquirers”. These are companies that rarely do deals, suddenly stepping up to the plate and swinging for the fences. Even more alarming, 40% of these megadeals were “transformative,” meaning the target was worth more than half of the buyer’s own market cap.
This is the equivalent of a driver who hasn’t been behind the wheel in five years deciding to race in Formula 1. These “tourists” are making “bet-the-company” moves with rusty playbooks. History tells us that infrequent acquirers often struggle to integrate and capture value. The market rebound is being led by the players least equipped to manage it.
The Tech Reality Check
Finally, the rebound wasn’t evenly distributed - it was a tech rescue mission. Tech M&A surged 77%. But this wasn’t about buying users; it was about buying brains. Almost half of these deals had an explicit “AI rationale”.
This confirms that the “build vs. buy” debate for AI is over. The “buy” side won. If you don’t have the AI talent or the GPU clusters by now, you can’t build them. You have to write a check to someone who already did.
Check the article from Bain here - Looking Back at M&A in 2025: Behind the Great Rebound